纺织服装行业2024年报业绩前瞻：内需回升重要线索，等待优质国牌困境反转

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][10]. Core Views - Domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, while external demand is benefiting from a "export rush" effect. Retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China for 2024 are projected at 1.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a cumulative year-on-year improvement of 0.6% compared to a decline of 2.3% in the third quarter [3][4]. - The total export value of China's textile and apparel for 2024 is estimated at 301.1 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. December exports reached 28.1 billion USD, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 11.4% [3][4]. - The performance of major brands in the fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a recovery in sales and improved inventory health, with notable growth in outdoor brands [3][4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales in Q4 2024 show a recovery trend with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.6%, improving from a decline of 2.3% in Q3 [3]. - The retail sales figures for clothing, shoes, and textiles reflect the impact of domestic economic policies [3]. External Demand - The textile and apparel export value for 2024 is projected at 301.1 billion USD, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3]. - The "export rush" effect and depreciation of the yuan have contributed to a significant increase in export growth in December [3]. Brand Performance - Major brands like Anta and FILA have shown strong recovery in sales, with FILA experiencing high single-digit growth in Q4 2024 [3][4]. - Li Ning has regained its status as the official apparel partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, enhancing its brand influence [3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, with recommendations for investment in outdoor sports brands and domestic brands [3][4]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from global market share growth, with companies like Huayi and Shenzhou projected to see significant revenue growth in 2024 [3][4].