全球宠物市场洞察：日本宠物经济的消费升级和龙头崛起之路

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The Japanese pet market has shown resilience and a trend of domestic brands replacing imports over the past 40 years, indicating potential for similar developments in China's pet economy [4][15] - The growth of the Japanese pet food market has transitioned from quantity-driven to price-driven since 2010, suggesting that future market expansion will rely on product price increases rather than just volume [10][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic pet companies with strong product innovation and brand upgrading capabilities, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd [15][113] Summary by Sections 1. Japanese Pet Food Market Growth - The Japanese pet food market has expanded over tenfold from 1978 to 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.55% [21] - The market growth was primarily driven by an increase in pet numbers until 2010, after which price increases became the main growth driver [10][30] 2. Domestic Replacement and Consumption Upgrade - The market has seen a shift where domestic brands have overtaken imports, with local brands holding significant market shares [11][52] - The pet food market in Japan has demonstrated strong resilience during economic downturns, maintaining growth even during crises [12][56] 3. Competitive Landscape and Product Differentiation - Inaba has emerged as a leading player in the Japanese pet food market, with a significant increase in sales from 20.7 billion yen in 2014 to 88.8 billion yen in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 17.56% [71] - The company has leveraged its marine food background to create unique products, particularly in the wet food segment, which has seen less competition compared to dry food [75][76] 4. Insights for China's Pet Industry - China's pet market is expected to follow a similar trajectory as Japan, with potential for domestic brands to rise and consumption upgrades to occur [14][89] - The report highlights that while the growth in pet numbers may slow, there is significant room for increasing per-pet spending, particularly in high-end pet food [98][99] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic pet companies that show potential for growth and innovation, as the market is likely to continue evolving towards higher quality and premium products [15][113]