2024Q4农业持仓回落，重点关注消费成长类标的投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agricultural sector [7]. Core Insights - The fund's heavy allocation to the agricultural sector has decreased, with a heavy position of 1.00% in Q4 2024, down by 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter. The sector's overweight ratio is -0.22%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points [3][10]. - The report highlights potential growth in the pig feed and aquaculture feed markets due to an expected increase in downstream inventory in 2025. The overseas feed market presents significant opportunities, with domestic companies actively seeking growth abroad. Key recommendations include Haida Group and He Feng Co. [3][38]. - The domestic pet industry continues to show strong growth, with a focus on domestic brands replacing imports and ongoing product upgrades. Recommended companies in this space include Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Bio [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Allocation Trends - The agricultural sector's fund allocation has shown a noticeable decline in Q4 2024, with a heavy position of 1.00%, down 0.32 percentage points. The overweight ratio is -0.22%, down 0.26 percentage points [10][18]. - The livestock sector's fund allocation has decreased significantly, with a heavy position of 0.51%, down 0.29 percentage points, while the feed sector's allocation slightly decreased to 0.38%, down 0.04 percentage points [11][20]. 2. Investment Recommendations 2.1 Pig Farming - In 2025, pig supply is expected to enter a more relaxed phase, leading to potential price pressure. The report recommends focusing on companies with clear cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [14][37]. 2.2 Feed Sector - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in demand for pig and aquaculture feed due to rising inventory levels. It also notes the vast potential in the overseas feed market, recommending Haida Group and suggesting attention to He Feng Co. [14][38]. 2.3 Pet Consumption - The domestic pet industry is characterized by robust growth, with a shift towards domestic brands and product upgrades. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in pet food and health, including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Bio [14][39]. 3. Heavy Holdings - The report indicates that heavy holdings remain concentrated in the livestock sector, with Haida Group being the most held stock by 165 funds, followed by Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [13][33].