宏观研究-固定收益专题报告：日本的利率与汇率

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Since the 1990s, Japan's monetary policy has aimed at economic growth and inflation recovery, utilizing a weak yen as an indirect economic stimulus tool[3] - The Bank of Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates and implemented quantitative easing (QE) to ensure ample yen liquidity, countering appreciation pressures[3] - In contrast to Japan's approach, China's future monetary policy may focus more on domestic stability while managing exchange rate stability[3] Group 2: Historical Exchange Rate Trends - From 1995 to 1998, the yen depreciated as Japan's monetary policy shifted to stimulate economic recovery, with the policy rate dropping from 1.75% to 0.5%[7] - The yen's depreciation during this period was accompanied by a recovery in export growth, as the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from around 81 to over 100[7] - Between 2012 and 2015, the introduction of QQE led to a significant depreciation of the yen, with the exchange rate moving from 76.11 to 102.98[9] Group 3: Implications for Current Policy - Japan's experience suggests that maintaining a weak currency can support export-driven economic recovery, which may inform China's approach to managing the yuan[10] - The Chinese central bank's actions to stabilize the yuan are crucial for maintaining foreign investment and stock market stability[10] - As China enters a period of moderate monetary easing, the yuan may face pressure, but the central bank has sufficient policy tools to manage fluctuations[10]