深挖宏观数据系列之五：地方收入目标降速背后蕴含的信息

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - As of January 22, 2025, 21 out of 31 provinces have announced lower growth targets for general public budget revenue compared to the previous year[1] - The weighted target growth rate for local general public budget revenue in 2025 is approximately 3.1%, the lowest since 2018[4] - In 2023, the total general public budget revenue for 31 provinces was 11.6 trillion yuan, while the total local general public budget revenue was 22 trillion yuan, indicating significant reliance on central transfers[3] Group 2: Budget Formulation Process - The fiscal budget formulation process involves multiple stages, with local governments submitting budgets to the central government for approval by January 10 each year[5] - The current revenue targets have undergone preliminary approval by the central government, reflecting a more realistic assessment of economic conditions[7] Group 3: Implications for Government Spending - The reduction in local revenue growth targets does not significantly impact government spending levels, as the overall revenue scale remains around 11 trillion yuan[12] - Lower revenue growth expectations may lead to increased central government support and higher debt allowances for local governments[12] - Historical data shows that during periods of low revenue growth, there is often an increase in both new debt issuance and central transfers to local governments[12] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The current revenue targets reflect a more objective understanding of the economy, driven by discrepancies between actual and targeted tax revenue growth since 2024[13] - The narrow deficit ratio is expected to be around 4%, while the broad budget deficit ratio may reach approximately 9%[13]