高端装备之船舶工业专题：造船行业三问：景气度、绿色化、内河船舶

Investment Rating - The report indicates a sustained high level of activity in the shipbuilding market, with a focus on supply-side marginal changes and the potential for continued demand from shipowners for fleet renewal and green transformation [1][9]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding market is expected to maintain high activity levels in the medium term, supported by the demand for fleet renewal and green initiatives, despite a potential slowdown in new ship order growth due to high base effects [1][9]. - The transition to green shipping is essential, with rising carbon emission costs driving the need for alternative fuels, such as LNG and methanol, to achieve decarbonization goals set by international maritime organizations [2][11]. - The inland shipping sector is experiencing a trend towards larger and greener vessels, driven by improvements in waterway standards and supportive policies for new energy vessels [3][11]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Market Sustainability - Demand from shipowners for fleet renewal and green initiatives is a key driver for new ship orders, with an increasing number of aging vessels expected to be decommissioned in the coming years [10][11]. - The global shipping market remains robust, with high cash flow among shipowners enabling continued investment in new vessels [15][16]. - Supply-side conditions show that shipbuilding capacity has bottomed out and is expected to maintain high utilization rates in the short to medium term, with a focus on the marginal expansion of capacity in China [17][24]. Green Shipping Impact - The shipping industry is under pressure to decarbonize, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) setting ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions [2][39]. - The adoption of alternative fuels is crucial for achieving these decarbonization goals, with a diverse range of fuel options being explored, including LNG and methanol [47][50]. - The economic viability and supply reliability of green methanol are critical issues, with current high prices expected to decrease as production capacity expands [2][11]. Changes in Inland Shipping - The ongoing upgrade of inland waterways is facilitating the trend towards larger vessels, enhancing operational efficiency [3][11]. - New energy vessel policies are accelerating the green transformation of inland shipping, with subsidies covering initial investment costs for new energy vessels [3][11].