房地产高频跟踪⑥：新房成交量回落至去年同期水平，关注节后销售持续性

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume has significantly declined, returning to levels seen in the same period last year, while the sustainability of sales post-Spring Festival is a key focus [1][22] - Following the "924 policy," there has been a notable rebound in the market, with both new and second-hand housing transactions reaching annual highs in December 2024 [2][22] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a weak effect of "price for volume," with a decrease in the number of cities seeing price increases month-on-month [2][4] Market Status - New housing sales in the first three weeks of January 2025 have dropped significantly, with a daily average transaction area down 48% compared to December 2024 [3][4] - The cumulative transaction volume for new homes has decreased by 0.4% compared to the same period last year, marking a nearly 40% decline compared to the average of 2022-2023 [3][4] - The second-hand housing market has also seen a slight decline, but it remains at a six-year high for the same period, with a 55% increase year-on-year [4][16] City-Level Analysis - In the first three weeks of 2025, first-tier cities have shown relative stability in transaction volumes, while second-tier cities have experienced a significant decline [11][22] - Specific cities like Shenzhen have shown strong rebounds in both new and second-hand housing markets, while Guangzhou's second-hand market has performed the weakest among selected cities [11][22] - The report highlights that the transaction volume in second-tier cities, except for Qingdao, has generally performed well, but recent weeks have seen a notable drop [11][22] Statistical Data - In December 2024, the total sales area for commercial housing was 970 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [16][21] - The report anticipates that the sales volume for commercial housing in 2025 will continue to decline, with expected year-on-year decreases of 7%-8% in sales area and 9%-10% in sales value [16][21] Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of the market rebound after the Spring Festival, as this period is traditionally a slow season for sales [22] - The effectiveness of new policies and their implementation will be crucial for maintaining market momentum, particularly in the context of the "924 policy" and its impact on market expectations [22][24]