策略专题报告：借鉴历史，如何才能促消费？

Core Conclusions - The report reviews three historical rounds of consumption stimulation from 1998 to 2021, highlighting the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing residents' income and reducing expenditures, as well as the impact of market-oriented real estate policies on consumption recovery [3][6] - The report emphasizes that the key to boosting consumption in 2025 will be the "Two New" policies, which aim to stabilize asset prices and increase income, thus driving consumption [3][6] Group 1: 1998-2002: Income Increase and Real Estate Marketization - During 1998-2000, China faced deflation and weak consumer confidence, prompting policies focused on increasing residents' income and reducing rigid expenditures through social security system establishment [7][8] - The average nominal growth rate of urban residents' disposable income rose from 5.1% in 1998 to 12.3% in 2002, contributing to a recovery in consumer confidence and retail sales [13][14] - Real estate-related consumption saw a significant increase, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 22.3% from 2000 to 2002, driven by housing reform and marketization [14][15] Group 2: 2009-2012: Subsidies for Durable Goods - The 2008 global financial crisis led to a focus on stimulating consumption of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances through subsidies [22][23] - From 2009 to 2012, the government implemented multiple rounds of fiscal subsidies for the "home appliances to the countryside" program, resulting in significant sales growth in rural areas [26][27] - The average year-on-year growth rate for automobile consumption during this period was 26.7%, while home appliance consumption grew at 20.4%, both exceeding the overall retail sales growth rate of 17% [26][27] Group 3: 2018-2021: Support for Information and Durable Goods - Policies during 2018-2021 focused on supporting large-scale consumption in sectors like automobiles, home appliances, and consumer electronics, with a notable emphasis on consumption vouchers during the pandemic [38][39] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth rose to approximately 60% during this period, reflecting a shift towards service consumption and quality consumption [42][39] - The food and beverage sector, along with leading home appliance companies, showed strong performance in the stock market, with significant price increases observed [39][40] Group 4: Expected Consumption Policies in 2025 - In 2025, boosting consumption is positioned as a top priority for economic work, with expectations for enhanced fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand [50][51] - The "Two New" policies are anticipated to expand, with a focus on consumption goods replacement programs, potentially injecting up to 300 billion yuan in subsidies, which could increase retail sales growth by 0.9-1.2 percentage points [51][56] - The report suggests that stabilizing the real estate market and increasing residents' income will be crucial for restoring consumer confidence and stimulating consumption [55][56]