房地产行业：深圳甲级写字楼市场季度报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Shenzhen Grade A office market, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics, rental rates, and vacancy rates [1]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of rising supply and falling prices is expected to continue into the next quarter, with significant new supply and demand observed in Q4 2024. The total stock of Grade A office space in Shenzhen has surpassed 10 million square meters for the first time, with net absorption reaching approximately 146,000 square meters [2][3]. - Average rental rates have declined by 1.4% to 159.1 RMB per square meter per month, while the vacancy rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.5%, indicating a mild recovery in the overall market [2][4]. - The TMT sector, professional services, and finance are identified as the three main drivers of demand in the Shenzhen Grade A office leasing market, with TMT showing strong stability [2][13]. Supply and Demand Summary - In Q4 2024, the market saw an increase in supply of approximately 119,000 square meters, leading to a total stock of Grade A office space exceeding 10 million square meters. The net absorption for the quarter was about 146,000 square meters, marking a significant increase [4][13]. - The demand sources for the quarter were primarily from the TMT sector (29.3%), professional services (22.2%), and manufacturing (18.7%), with relocation demands dominating the leasing transactions [13][14]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the market due to the backlog of supply and the expected delivery of projects delayed from 2024 [3][16]. Rental Trends - The average rental rate for Grade A offices in Shenzhen has decreased to 159.1 RMB per square meter per month, marking a 1.4% decline from the previous quarter. This decline has been ongoing for ten consecutive quarters [7][10]. - Specific submarkets such as the Futian CBD and Chegongmiao have shown slight rental increases of 1.1% and 2.7%, respectively, while other areas like Qianhai have experienced a significant drop of 6.3% due to new supply [7][10]. - The report forecasts that rental rates may continue to decline in Q1 2025, influenced by the influx of new supply and the lack of clear demand drivers [9][16]. Investment Market Overview - The report notes that there were no significant transactions in the large-scale investment market for Grade A offices in Q4 2024, with a total transaction volume of approximately 2.7 billion RMB for the year, reflecting a more than 50% decline year-on-year [17]. - The cautious approach of large buyers is attributed to ongoing economic uncertainties and the pressure on asset values due to declining rental incomes [17].