快递行业12月数据解读：通达系价格整体企稳，申通业务量增速继续领跑

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the express delivery industry [6]. Core Insights - In December, the national express delivery volume reached 17.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, driven by the "Double 12" e-commerce promotion and early Spring Festival consumption [3][10]. - The average single ticket price in December was 7.75 yuan, a decrease of 0.56% from November, indicating ongoing price competition in the low-price segment [3][11]. - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders that have experienced significant declines but have stable fundamentals, as the sector's valuation is at a historically low level [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Volume: Driven by E-commerce Promotions and Year-End Consumption - December's express delivery volume achieved a high growth rate of 22.3% year-on-year, totaling 17.8 billion pieces [10][21]. - Major express brands maintained high growth, with Shentong leading with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.72% [25]. 2. Single Ticket Price: Overall Stability in Express Prices - The average single ticket price in December was 7.75 yuan, down 0.56% from November, with a year-on-year decline of 7.11% after adjusting for data changes [11][34]. - The prices of major express companies like YTO and Yunda remained stable compared to November [44]. 3. Industry Structure: Rising Market Shares for YTO and Shentong - The brand concentration index CR8 was 85.2 in December, unchanged from November but up 1.2 from the previous year [54][55]. - Market shares for YTO and Shentong increased year-on-year, while SF and Yunda saw slight declines [57]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Undervalued Leaders - The report indicates that the fundamentals are improving, with January's express delivery volume expected to maintain high growth rates due to early demand for New Year goods [61]. - The sector's valuation is at a relative low, suggesting a focus on leading companies that have seen significant price drops, such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express [65].