【NIFD季报】震荡筑底、砥砺前行—2024年度中国宏观金融

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, proposing a "more proactive" fiscal policy and "moderately loose" monetary policy [3][4] - The report identifies five major tasks for 2025, including risk mitigation, stabilizing the stock market, addressing the impact of Trump 2.0, inventory reduction in real estate, and expanding domestic demand [3][11] - The report emphasizes that a deficit rate of over 8% is necessary to maintain sufficient fiscal spending intensity, given the decline in hidden fiscal expenditures and land finance [4] Summary by Sections Learning from the Central Economic Work Conference - The focus has shifted to insufficient demand as a primary challenge since 2021, with a consistent emphasis on proactive fiscal and stable monetary policies [7][8] Five Major Tasks for 2025 - Risk Mitigation: Involves debt replacement to alleviate local government hidden debt risks, which is considered the least difficult task [13][15] - Stabilizing the Stock Market: The stock market is at historical low valuations, requiring long-term capital formation through pension system reforms [19][20] - Trump 2.0: The potential impact of Trump's policies is expected to be more severe than before, with significant implications for the Chinese economy [28][30] - Inventory Reduction: The real estate market faces a long and challenging process of inventory reduction due to demographic shifts and population decline [37][40] - Expanding Domestic Demand: This task is deemed the most challenging, necessitating structural reforms and increased household consumption [44][46] Implementation of "More Proactive" Fiscal Policy - The report discusses the need to optimize fiscal expenditure structure and maintain a high deficit rate to support fiscal spending [4][9]