如何看待12月生猪产能数据？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agricultural sector [7]. Core Insights - As of December 2024, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.78 million heads, nearing the upper limit of the 105% capacity control green zone. The pig farming sector turned profitable in 2024, with an average profit of 214 yuan per pig, an increase of 290 yuan compared to 2023. The breeding sow capacity is expected to slowly recover in 2024, leading to a more relaxed supply of pigs in 2025, which may put pressure on pig prices. Recommended companies include those with significant cost advantages and high turnover rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the post-cycle veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [4][10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. December Breeding Sow Inventory Changes - The breeding sow inventory remained stable in December, with a total of 40.78 million heads, close to the upper limit of the capacity control zone. The pig farming sector achieved profitability in 2024, with an average profit of 214 yuan per pig, up by 290 yuan from 2023. The breeding sow capacity is entering a slow recovery phase, and by 2025, the pig supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to price pressure [10][19]. 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Capacity Changes - Pig prices are expected to face pressure in 2025 due to increased supply. The breeding sow inventory is projected to continue increasing, supported by optimistic price expectations and declining feed costs. The overall pig disease situation is stable, which may mitigate production losses. Thus, the breeding sow inventory is likely to show a stable, slight increase leading up to the 2025 Spring Festival [33][36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-cost pig farming enterprises. With pig prices having peaked at over 21 yuan per kilogram in August 2024, the market is now experiencing fluctuations. The report recommends companies with clear cost advantages and high turnover rates, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [37].