食品饮料行业周报：板块持仓继续下降，头部企业股息率具备吸引力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautiously Optimistic" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, suggesting a balanced allocation between liquor and food sectors, with a focus on dairy products for independent growth opportunities [5][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the first quarter of 2025 will be primarily driven by policies and expectations, while the second half will focus on fundamentals and performance. It suggests a balanced allocation between liquor and food, with an overweight on food in the first half and a focus on dairy products [5][9]. - The liquor sector is facing significant pressure due to slow demand recovery, with expectations of a challenging first quarter. However, if the economy improves in 2025, the industry fundamentals may reach a bottom [5][9]. - The report highlights that leading companies in the liquor sector have become attractive for long-term investment based on dividend yields, recommending companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai [5][9]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report notes a slight increase in prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, with Moutai's retail price at 2,240 RMB per bottle and 2,270 RMB per case, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 20 RMB and 30 RMB respectively. The sector is expected to face challenges during the Spring Festival due to reduced high-end consumption scenarios [10][31]. - Inventory levels in the liquor industry are anticipated to rise both sequentially and year-on-year, but companies are managing inventory more rationally, maintaining price stability [10][11]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the food sector is expected to recover from previous inventory adjustments, with companies adopting more rational operational goals. The rise of new retail formats is anticipated to drive growth in certain new categories [5][9]. - The dairy sector is highlighted as having significant investment opportunities in 2025, with companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer expected to improve operations [5][9]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.10% last week, with liquor down 2.07%, underperforming the broader market. The report ranks the food and beverage sector 30th among 31 sub-industries [8]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of various food and beverage companies, including their expected performance and market strategies for 2025, indicating a focus on cost management and market expansion [13][14].