农林牧渔行业1月行业动态报告及2024年业绩前瞻：1月行情承压，24年生猪&宠物业绩亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry in January 2024 was under pressure, with the SW Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index down 11.58%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 14.68% [4][7]. - The pig farming sector showed a mixed performance, with the average pig price experiencing fluctuations throughout 2024, while the pet food sector demonstrated significant growth in both domestic sales and exports [4][35]. - The feed industry faced challenges with declining demand and falling prices, leading to compressed profit margins for companies [49][55]. - The animal health sector saw a decline in performance due to slow recovery in demand for veterinary vaccines and increased market competition [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The SW Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 4.36% in January 2025, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which decreased by 3.50% [16]. - Various sub-sectors experienced different levels of decline, with feed and agricultural product processing showing relatively smaller drops [4][16]. 2. Pig Farming Sector - As of December 2024, the number of breeding sows was 40.78 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.05% month-on-month and a 1.55% year-on-year decline [26]. - The average pig price in January 2025 was 15.22 yuan/kg, down 28.2% from the peak in August 2024 [27]. - Most pig farming companies reported improved profitability in 2024, with several companies expected to turn losses into profits [33]. 3. Pet Food Sector - The pet food market in China saw significant growth in both domestic and export sales, with exports reaching $1.48 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [42]. - Major companies like Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co. are expected to report substantial profit increases, driven by strong domestic and international sales [47]. 4. Feed Industry - The feed industry faced a decline in both volume and price, with the average price of pig feed dropping by approximately 10.9% in 2024 [49]. - The overall feed production in China decreased by 2.54% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced demand from the pig farming sector [55]. 5. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry experienced a decline in performance, with a year-on-year decrease in the number of vaccine approvals [56]. - The sector's revenue growth was negatively impacted by the sluggish recovery in demand for veterinary vaccines [56].