商业零售行业2024年四季报业绩前瞻：政策加码提振消费，关注优质供给创新

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial retail industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in comparison to the overall market performance [3][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that consumer demand is expected to gradually recover, driven by a series of consumption-boosting policies and the traditional peak shopping season in Q4 2024 [3][4]. - E-commerce platforms are focusing on core business growth, with major players like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo showing promising revenue growth forecasts for Q4 2024 [3][4]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing a recovery in consumer demand, with expectations of improved performance in Q4 2024 as traditional peak seasons approach [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in supply and consumer experience upgrades in the offline retail sector, particularly for department stores and supermarkets [3][4]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - Alibaba is expected to achieve a revenue of 275 billion yuan in FY3Q25, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [3][4]. - JD.com anticipates a revenue increase of 9.0% to 333.6 billion yuan in Q4 2024, benefiting from government subsidies [3][4]. - Meituan's revenue is projected to grow by 19% to 87.7 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a stable core local business [3][4]. - Pinduoduo is expected to see a 26% revenue increase to 112.4 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a 22% rise in adjusted net profit [3][4]. Jewelry Sector - The report notes a gradual recovery in consumer demand for gold and jewelry, with expectations of narrowing declines in retail sales [3][4]. - Companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are projected to experience varying degrees of revenue adjustments in Q4 2024, with some expecting a return to growth [3][4]. Supermarket and Department Store Sector - Yonghui Supermarket is undergoing a transformation to enhance supply chain efficiency, with expected revenue declines of 10%-20% in Q4 2024 [3][4]. - Chongqing Department Store is projected to achieve a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, with a net profit increase of 137.5% [3][4]. - Other companies like Jia Jia Yue and Hongqi Lianchuan are also adjusting their operations to improve efficiency and customer experience, with mixed revenue forecasts [3][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the combination of policy support and seasonal demand will likely stimulate consumer spending in Q4 2024, with a positive outlook for key players in the e-commerce and retail sectors [3][4].