2024年财政数据分析：收支持续改善，年底或有余粮

Group 1: Fiscal Overview - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure improved in December, indicating a continued increase in counter-cyclical fiscal policy since August[1] - The first account (general public budget) showed expenditures exceeding revenues, with central government spending growth significantly outpacing local government at 6.5% compared to 3.2%[2] - The second account (government funds) reported revenues exceeding expenditures, reflecting structural adjustments in investment, with local governments reducing inefficient investments[3] Group 2: Budget Performance - The first account's revenue completion rate was 98.1%, with a negative growth of -3.4% against a target of 3.6%, prompting local governments to lower revenue growth targets for 2025[4] - The second account's revenue completion rate was 87.7%, with a significant decline in land revenue growth recorded at -16% for the year[5] - The total revenue for the second account was 6.2 trillion yuan, with an expected carryover of approximately 1 trillion yuan to 2025 due to lower expenditures of 10.14 trillion yuan[6] Group 3: Taxation and Expenditure Trends - Tax revenue growth was below initial targets, with value-added tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showing negative growth, while consumption tax grew by 2.6%[7] - Non-tax revenue surged to 25.4% in December, reflecting pressure on local governments to meet year-end revenue targets[8] - The overall expenditure structure shifted towards economic transformation, with significant increases in spending on education and technology, indicating a focus on social welfare[9]