2024上海商业地产市场年度总结及展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial real estate industry in Shanghai for 2024. Core Insights - The Shanghai commercial real estate market is experiencing a mixed outlook, with pressures in various segments but also opportunities arising from evolving tenant demands and market dynamics [3][4]. Summary by Sections Grade A Office Market - In 2024, the demand for cost-driven relocations and upgrades is expected to rise, with a net absorption of 476,000 square meters recorded for the year [8][12]. - The overall market remains under supply pressure, with significant new projects entering the market and some delays in project completions [8][36]. - Upgrading demand accounts for 74% of relocation transactions, driven by tenants seeking better quality spaces amid declining rents [18][20]. - The market is characterized by a stable demand from diverse industries, with traditional sectors like finance and technology accounting for over 70% of the demand [30][32]. Retail Property Market - The retail property market in Shanghai is under pressure, with a 3.1% year-on-year decline in total retail sales, amounting to 1,637 billion yuan [42][44]. - Net absorption for retail properties is approximately 451,000 square meters, showing a slowdown compared to 2023 [42][46]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards experiences and value, leading to increased demand for sportswear, pet services, and affordable dining options [51][66]. - The market is expected to see new opportunities from emerging consumer trends, with 11 new projects anticipated to enter the market in 2025 [65][66]. Logistics Real Estate Market - The logistics real estate market in the Greater Shanghai area is at a historical high in terms of supply, with over 1.3 million square meters of new projects completed in 2024 [70][75]. - The average annual new supply across major logistics markets is 3.69 million square meters, significantly above the ten-year average [70][75]. - The market is experiencing intensified competition due to high supply levels, with third-party logistics companies actively seeking to optimize their warehouse resources [91][92]. - The logistics sector is also undergoing a green transformation, with a notable increase in LEED-certified projects, reflecting a shift towards sustainability [94][95]. Long-term Rental Apartment Market - The long-term rental apartment market in Shanghai is seeing a robust increase in supply, with 71,000 new units added in 2024, and a net absorption of over 60,000 units, surpassing the previous year's figures [104][107]. - The demand is driven by young professionals, families, and students, with a notable increase in requests for high-quality, well-located apartments [108][111]. - Investment activity in the long-term rental market remains strong, with a total transaction volume of 7.74 billion yuan in 2024, marking a record high [118][119].