日本消费行业12月跟踪报告：通胀再次加速，假期拉动需求

Macro Environment - Real wages rose by 0.5% year-on-year in November, with total cash payrolls increasing by 3.9% year-on-year [2][7] - The Consumer Confidence Index for December was 36.2, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous month [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008 [2][9] - December CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously, with core CPI rising by 2.5% for the full year of 2024 [2][9] Industry Overview - The year-end holidays significantly boosted consumer demand, with increased travel and spending from both domestic and foreign tourists [3][16] - In the staples sector, Pan Pacific International Holdings led with strong unit price growth, while the soft drink sector experienced an overall decline in sales due to price increases [3][84] - In discretionary spending, dining and apparel expenditures continued to rise, with Sukiya and Uniqlo showing the highest same-store sales growth in December [3][84] Staples Companies - In December, same-store sales for PPIH, AEON, and 711 Japan were up by 5.8%, 2.6%, and 1.3% year-on-year respectively [4][85] - Drugstore sales for Matsukiyo Cocokara and Welcia both increased by 6.1% year-on-year [4][85] - The soft drink sector saw a decline in sales volumes, with major brands like Suntory, Kirin, and Asahi reporting a 4% drop [4][85] Discretionary Companies - December same-store sales for restaurants such as Sukiya and Saizeriya increased by 16.7% and 16.4% year-on-year respectively [5][86] - Apparel sales also saw significant growth, with Uniqlo reporting a 15.3% increase in same-store sales [5][86] - Duty-free sales in December rose by 31.3% year-on-year, with the number of customers increasing by 36.6% [5][86] Equity Market - Most consumer sub-sectors saw gains in December, with textiles and apparel leading at 3.5% and 2.8% respectively [6][87] - In the staples sector, home goods and personal care products rose by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively, while beer sales fell by 0.9% [6][87] - Retail and food & beverage ETFs experienced net inflows of $29.67 million and $10.34 million respectively [6][87] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with optimistic profit improvement prospects, including ASICS, benefiting from improved pricing and product mix [88] - Pan Pacific International Holdings continues to show strong same-store sales growth [88] - Fast Retailing Group is experiencing rapid growth in international business alongside strong local sales [88]