地产及物管行业周报：大力实施城市更新，中长期资金加速入市，房企业绩继续承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the implementation of urban renewal policies and the acceleration of long-term capital entering the market, while acknowledging that real estate companies continue to face performance pressures [2][3]. - It is expected that the real estate industry will stabilize and recover, particularly in first and second-tier cities, which may experience a reversal in supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 18-24, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new home transaction volume of 2.685 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.1% [3][6]. - First and second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 1.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 21.7% increase [3][6]. Monthly Year-on-Year Comparison - In January, the total new home transaction volume in 34 cities was 9.199 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [6][7]. - First and second-tier cities recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant year-on-year decrease of 35.5% [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 18-24, 2025, 13 key cities recorded a total second-hand home transaction volume of 1.21 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 13.3% [11]. - The cumulative transaction volume for January was 5.439 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 48.3% [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 18-24, 2025, 15 key cities launched 830,000 square meters of new supply, with a corresponding transaction volume of 1.05 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 1.27 [16]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 92.24 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2% [16]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes significant policy developments, including the emphasis on urban renewal by the State Council and the successful support of 14 million housing units through the real estate financing coordination mechanism [25][27]. - Local governments are implementing measures to optimize the real estate market, such as improving the bond default risk disposal mechanism and supporting the revitalization of existing land resources [25][27]. Company Performance Overview - The report provides forecasts for 2024 earnings, indicating significant declines for several companies, including Tianjian Group (5.4 to 7 billion, down 53.9% to 66.4%) and Jianfa Co. (24 to 35 billion, down 73% to 82%) [30][32]. - Notably, companies like I Love My Home are expected to turn a profit after previous losses, with forecasts of 0.7 to 1 billion [30][32].