石油化工行业周报：国内外气价走势背离，LNG现货进口亏损增加

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant divergence in domestic and international gas prices, with domestic LNG prices decreasing while international prices are on the rise, leading to increased losses in LNG spot imports [2][3]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $78.50 per barrel, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous week [18]. - The refining sector shows improvement in profitability due to rising overseas refined oil crack spreads, although domestic refining product margins remain low [12]. - The polyester sector is witnessing mixed performance, with PTA profitability declining while polyester filament profitability is increasing [12]. Summary by Sections LNG Market - Domestic LNG average price for Q4 2024 was 4752 RMB/ton, down 3.38% quarter-on-quarter, while the import price was $14.12/MMBtu, up 8.65% [2][4]. - Three new LNG receiving stations were commissioned in 2024, increasing supply capacity by 13 million tons [4][5]. - Domestic demand for LNG has decreased due to warmer-than-expected temperatures, leading to lower heating gas consumption [4][9]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with a weekly average of $79.05 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 2.42% [18]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased to 576, down 4 rigs week-on-week and 45 rigs year-on-year [27][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to remain stable due to OPEC production cuts [12][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $12.18 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread rose to $7.45 per barrel [12]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [12]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have increased to 5094 RMB/ton, while the PTA-PX spread has decreased to 263 RMB/ton [12]. - The report indicates that the polyester industry is showing signs of recovery, with low inventory levels and potential demand resurgence [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-dividend companies such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [12]. - It also suggests continued optimism for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to expected increases in capital expenditure [12]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the ethylene market, particularly for companies involved in ethane-to-ethylene projects [12].