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医药行业周报:艾司氯胺酮单药疗法获批,难治性抑郁症快速改善
Tai Ping Yang·2025-01-27 00:23

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive," expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [40]. Core Insights - Esketamine, a new mechanism antidepressant, has been approved for treatment of treatment-resistant depression (TRD), showing rapid improvement in symptoms [6][19]. - The global depression patient population is approximately 280 million, with TRD accounting for about 30%, translating to around 21 million patients in the U.S. and 95 million in China [14]. - Current antidepressants have a cumulative remission rate of only 67%, with the STAR*D study indicating sequential treatment stages yielding remission rates of 37%, 56%, 62%, and 67% respectively [4][14]. - Esketamine's sales reached $374 million in 2022 and are projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted peak sales potential of $5 billion by 2027 [7][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Approval of Esketamine for TRD - Esketamine nasal spray was approved by the FDA on January 17, 2025, as the first and only monotherapy for TRD [19]. - Compared to the placebo group, 22.5% of patients receiving Esketamine achieved symptom relief by day 28, demonstrating its rapid efficacy [19]. 2. Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: "Innovation Going Global," "Expected Improvement," and "Essential Growth" [10][23]. - Innovation Going Global: High-quality innovations addressing unmet clinical needs are expected to uncover greater potential [23]. - Expected Improvement: Structural reversal opportunities are anticipated due to macroeconomic and policy fluctuations [24]. - Essential Growth: The aging population in China is expected to drive demand for essential medical products [25]. 3. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 0.22% increase, ranking 14th among all sectors during the week of January 20-24, 2025 [26]. - Notable sub-sectors such as medical services and chemical raw materials experienced gains, while traditional Chinese medicine saw a decline of 1.92% [26]. 4. Valuation Trends - As of January 24, 2025, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector increased, with a premium rate of 114.92% over the CSI 300 index [30]. - The medical services, chemical raw materials, and chemical preparations sub-sectors showed rising valuations, while traditional Chinese medicine and biopharmaceuticals saw declines [30].