国债期货月报：央行持续打压债市短期回落202501

Market Performance - The closing price for the two-year bond TS2503 is 102.72, reflecting a decrease of 0.23%[2] - The five-year bond TF2503 closed at 106.37, down by 0.11%[2] - The ten-year bond T2503 showed a slight increase of 0.19%, closing at 109.12[2] - The thirty-year bond TL2503 experienced a significant rise of 1.44%, closing at 120.53[2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The average daily trading volume for the two-year bond TS2503 was 36,609 contracts[2] - The five-year bond TF2503 had a trading volume of 67,398 contracts, indicating active trading[2] - The thirty-year bond TL2503 had the highest trading volume at 94,965 contracts, suggesting strong market interest[2] Yield and IRR Analysis - The IRR for the two-year bond is 0.0%, indicating no expected return change[2] - The IRR for the thirty-year bond TL2503 is also 0.0%, reflecting stability in expected returns[2] - The forward yield for the two-year bond is 0.00%, suggesting no anticipated yield changes in the near term[2] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2024 is projected at 5.4%, which is higher than previous quarters[21] - The trade surplus is expected to exceed previous forecasts, contributing positively to economic growth[21] - The CPI is projected to remain low, with values around 0.10% to 0.60% over the coming months[21]