日本策略：海上观日：日本加息点评

Investment Focus - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the policy rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on January 24, marking the third rate hike since the end of negative interest rates in March last year, bringing the rate back to a 30-year high [3][18] - The new rate will take effect from January 27, 2025, and is the highest level since September 1995 [3][18] - The BOJ significantly increased its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2025, raising the core CPI prediction by 0.5% to 2.4% [3][4] Economic Growth and Inflation Forecast - The actual GDP growth and core CPI forecasts for Japan are as follows: - FY 2024: GDP growth at 0.5%, core CPI at 2.7% - FY 2025: GDP growth at 1.1%, core CPI at 2.4% - FY 2026: GDP growth at 1.0%, core CPI at 2.0% [4] Market Reactions - The rate hike was in line with market expectations, with over 90% of the market anticipating the increase prior to the announcement [6] - Following the announcement, the Japanese stock market experienced slight fluctuations, but the overall sentiment remained stable [6][10] Future Rate Hikes - There is a high probability of another rate hike of 0.25% in the summer of 2025, as the BOJ believes that Japan still faces upward pressure on import prices [8][10] - The BOJ's current policy rate is still below the neutral rate, indicating potential for further increases if economic conditions align with expectations [8] Consumer Spending and Wage Growth - Real wages in Japan showed a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in November, marking the first positive growth in four months, which supports consumer spending recovery [9] - The BOJ noted that wage increases are becoming a common consensus in Japanese society, which is expected to bolster consumer spending [9] Stock Market Impact - The BOJ's rate hike is seen as a positive signal for the Japanese stock market, particularly for domestic demand-related sectors, as it enhances confidence in Japan's economic recovery from deflation [10] - The report anticipates increased capital investment by Japanese companies, which could improve future profitability [10]