2024年12月暨四季度台股营收跟踪：HPC仍为主要驱动因素，电子供应链复苏趋势向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1][4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor manufacturing sector, particularly TSMC, is expected to lead the AI investment cycle with significant revenue growth projected for 2024 and 2025 [4]. - The storage segment is experiencing a slowdown, with expectations of price declines in DRAM and NAND Flash products due to weak demand and high inventory levels [4]. - The semiconductor design sector shows stable demand, particularly in HPC and consumer electronics, with notable revenue increases for companies like ASIC design service provider 世芯 [4]. - The components sector remains driven by server demand, with growth in passive components and PCB production expected to continue [4]. - The EMS segment shows cautious optimism, with significant revenue growth anticipated in AI server-related products [4]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Manufacturing - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at NT$ 868.5 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, with a full-year revenue forecast of NT$ 2.8943 trillion for 2024, up 34% [4]. - Other manufacturers like UMC and World Advanced also show positive growth, with UMC's Q4 revenue up 12% year-on-year [4]. Storage - The storage market has seen a decline in demand since H2 2024, with TrendForce predicting a 8%-13% decrease in DRAM prices and a 10%-15% decrease in NAND prices for Q1 2025 [4]. - Major players like Nanya and Winbond reported significant revenue drops in Q4 2024, indicating a challenging market environment [4]. Semiconductor Design - The logic chip segment remains stable, with companies like 世芯 reporting a 41% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2024 [4]. - MediaTek's revenue for 2024 is projected at NT$ 530.6 billion, reflecting a 22% increase year-on-year [4]. Components - The demand for passive components and PCBs is expected to grow, particularly in AI infrastructure [4]. - The server PCB market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.6% from 2023 to 2028, driven by AI server demand [4]. EMS - Companies like Quanta and Inventec reported substantial revenue growth in Q4 2024, with Quanta's revenue reaching NT$ 138.42 billion, a 49% increase year-on-year [4]. - The AI server liquid cooling segment is expected to see a sixfold revenue increase in 2025 [4].