化妆品医美行业周报：业绩预告表现分化，润本股份增速亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The performance of the cosmetics and medical beauty sector has been weaker than the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 0.3% from January 17 to January 24, 2025, underperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.1 percentage points [3][4]. - The report highlights a divergence in earnings forecasts among companies, with Runben Co., Ltd. expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of 32.73% to 37.15% in net profit, driven by strong sales of its new egg yolk oil series [3][7]. - The overall consumption environment for cosmetics remains weak, suggesting a mixed performance for companies in 2024, with recommendations to focus on strong alpha companies and those expected to see marginal improvements in 2025 [7][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index rising by 0.4%, but still lagging behind the Shenwan A Index by 0.4 percentage points [3][4]. - The report notes that the overall retail sales of cosmetics in 2024 are expected to decline by 1.1%, underperforming the overall retail sales growth of 3.5% [12][15]. Company Highlights - Runben Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve a net profit of 300 to 310 million yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase from the previous year [8][9]. - Procter & Gamble reported a net sales figure of $21.882 billion (approximately 159 billion yuan) for Q2 of fiscal year 2025, with a net profit increase of 33% [17][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand matrices and comprehensive product layouts, such as Proya, Shiseido, and Marubi, which are expected to benefit from the live e-commerce boom [3][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the medical beauty sector with high R&D barriers and strong profitability, such as Aimeike, while keeping an eye on companies like Langzi [3][8]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the Chinese skincare market reached a size of 281.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, highlighting the rise of domestic brands [23][24]. - The color cosmetics market saw a recovery with a size of 61.8 billion yuan in 2023, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [25][26].