中国银河：每日晨报-20250127

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital entering the market, particularly focusing on three main directions: new productive forces, dual new directions, and assets with high safety margins [2][20][22] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates an improvement in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with expectations for a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, including a projected narrow deficit rate of around 4% and a broad deficit rate of about 9% [5][12][18] - The report highlights the structural opportunities in the A-share market, particularly in February, driven by liquidity recovery, policy expectations from the upcoming Two Sessions, and a favorable investment window for corporate earnings [20][22] Group 1: Long-term Capital Market Entry - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market entry was jointly issued by six government departments, aiming to stabilize the capital market and enhance long-term funding [2] - The report notes that insurance funds, social security funds, and pension funds have significant potential for increasing their investments in A-shares, with specific targets set for insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025 [2][20] - The report identifies that the long-term capital entering the market will likely focus on sectors aligned with national strategic needs and technological innovation [2][20] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The fiscal data analysis shows that overall fiscal revenue and expenditure improved in December, indicating a shift in fiscal policy towards more proactive measures [5][12] - The report suggests that local governments have adjusted their revenue growth targets for 2025, reflecting a more realistic assessment of economic conditions and the need for increased central government support [12][18] - The analysis indicates that the structure of fiscal expenditure is shifting towards technology and education, reflecting a focus on economic transformation and social welfare [8][10] Group 3: A-share Market Performance - Historical data from 2015 to 2024 suggests a high probability of positive returns in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, with expectations for a bullish trend in February [20][22] - The report highlights that the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to boost market sentiment and policy expectations, which could lead to increased investment in sectors benefiting from government support [20][22] - The recommended investment strategy for February focuses on growth-oriented value stocks in technology and consumer sectors, capitalizing on favorable policy and earnings expectations [20][22]