Flat(601865) 国联证券·2025-01-27 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Views - The company has announced a profit warning for 2024, expecting a net profit of 938-1076 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.0%-66.0%. The decline is attributed to a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices and impairment provisions for cold repair furnaces and certain inventories [2][10]. - Despite short-term profit pressure due to weak demand and falling prices, the report suggests that the current low-price competition may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity, optimizing the competitive landscape. As a leading player in the photovoltaic glass industry, the company is expected to maintain its competitive edge and achieve long-term growth [2][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a substantial decline in net profit for 2024, with a forecasted range of 938-1076 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 61.0%-66.0% year-on-year. The expected non-recurring net profit is also projected to decrease by the same percentage [10]. - The second half of 2024 is expected to see continued pressure on profitability due to falling photovoltaic glass prices and the need for impairment provisions [10]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is currently undergoing a supply-demand adjustment, with an oversupply of photovoltaic glass. Despite a significant cold repair and shutdown of furnaces, the high inventory levels have led to a continued decline in prices, with the average price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass expected to drop to 11.8 yuan per square meter by the end of 2024, a 33% year-on-year decrease [11]. - The report anticipates that 2025 will see a supply-side adjustment, potentially leading to the exit of underperforming production capacity and a recovery in performance [11]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company has added two new photovoltaic glass production lines in H1 2024, bringing total capacity to 23,000 tons per day, which accounts for approximately 20% of the industry’s total capacity. However, cold repairs in H2 2024 will impact the company's output [12]. - The company’s large-scale furnaces, which constitute over 90% of its production capacity, provide advantages in stability and efficiency. Ongoing technological improvements and cost management initiatives are expected to mitigate some of the profit decline [13]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 20.75 billion, 25.77 billion, and 33.50 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.6%, +24.2%, and +30.0%. Net profit forecasts are 1.03 billion, 2.05 billion, and 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting significant fluctuations in growth rates [14][15]. - The report highlights that while short-term profitability is under pressure, the long-term outlook remains positive due to potential market adjustments and the company's strong market position [14].