有色金属行业周报：特朗普政策倾向利好，国内金价再创新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry is positively influenced by Trump's policies, with domestic gold prices reaching new highs [1]. - The report highlights three main mid-term logic points for the rise in gold prices: increased global gold ETF holdings due to Fed rate cuts, central bank purchases driven by geopolitical conflicts, and credit devaluation hedging due to U.S. debt issues [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Market Review - As of January 24, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.33% to 3,252.63 points, while the SW Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index decreased by 0.91% to 4,531.47 points [7][8]. - The SW Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index has increased by 4.94% since the beginning of 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased by 2.96% [7]. 2. Non-Ferrous Metals Price Review (1) Basic Metals - SHFE copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices were reported at 75,870 CNY/ton, 20,400 CNY/ton, 23,875 CNY/ton, 16,730 CNY/ton, 123,710 CNY/ton, and 247,850 CNY/ton respectively, with weekly changes of -0.67%, -0.20%, -0.15%, +0.21%, -3.37%, and -0.16% [17][18]. - LME prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were reported at 9,269 USD/ton, 2,632 USD/ton, 2,824 USD/ton, 1,937 USD/ton, 15,580 USD/ton, and 30,150 USD/ton respectively, with weekly changes of +0.86%, -1.97%, -4.03%, -1.53%, -3.21%, and +1.26% [17][18]. (2) Precious Metals - SHFE gold and silver prices were reported at 648.90 CNY/gram and 7,778 CNY/kilogram, with weekly changes of +1.07% and -1.22% respectively [49][50]. - COMEX gold and silver prices were reported at 2,777 USD/ounce and 31.04 USD/ounce, with weekly changes of +1.04% and -0.32% respectively [49][50]. (3) Rare and Minor Metals - Prices for various rare and minor metals such as lithium carbonate and tungsten concentrate were reported, with notable price stability or slight changes [59][62]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The global refined copper market is projected to face a supply shortage of 131,000 tons in November 2024, up from a shortage of 30,000 tons in October [89]. - Zambia's copper production is expected to increase by 12% in 2024, driven by the recovery of major mines [90]. - Codelco is in negotiations with Saudi Arabia for joint investments to increase copper production by 70,000 tons in 2025 [91]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource reserves and industry consolidation capabilities, such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Aluminum [98].