军工行业双周报：基金持仓持续回升，关注25Q2景气复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the defense and military industry [1]. Core Views - The military industry has seen a continuous recovery in fund holdings, with the proportion of active public funds in military stocks reaching 3.57% in Q4 2024, an increase of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The report highlights the positive sentiment in the market, driven by the initiation of the 924 market rally, which has led to a more aggressive allocation of public funds towards the military sector [2][5]. - The report anticipates that the military industry will experience a transition from strong expectations to strong realities, particularly as industry orders are expected to improve in the medium term [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings in the Military Sector - The proportion of military holdings in active public funds has increased for three consecutive quarters, indicating a recovery trend [5]. - Excluding military-themed funds, the proportion of other active funds in military stocks slightly decreased to 2.59% in Q4 2024, a decline of 0.13 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The concentration of fund holdings (CR10) in military stocks has decreased to 55.72% in Q4 2024, down 5.86 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][5]. 2. Market Performance - The military index has seen a cumulative increase of over 35% from its bottom, although the report notes that the turning point for industry orders has not yet been reached [47]. - The military sector's valuation (TTM) stands at 57.06x, slightly below the historical valuation center of 59x, indicating potential upward movement [27][29]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the growing focus on "low-altitude economy" and "commercial aerospace" during local government meetings, with many provinces outlining development paths for these sectors in their 2025 work reports [2][39]. - The commercial satellite industry is expected to enter a phase of dual-sided growth in 2025, with significant advancements in satellite constellation networking and manufacturing [41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach, with short-term fluctuations expected but a positive outlook for medium to long-term growth in the military sector [47]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Short-term recovery and medium-term stability: Ziguang Guowei, Chuangjiang New Materials, and Huayu Technology [48]. - Positive short-term changes and sustained long-term growth: China Satellite, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, and Aero Engine Corporation of China [48]. - Companies with expected capital operations: Aviation Materials, Aero Engine Control, and Lekai New Materials [48].