2024Q4银行板块公募基金重仓数据点评：主动资金重仓比例提高，城商行关注度上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of actively managed funds in the banking sector, with a notable rise in the focus on city commercial banks. The low allocation ratio for the banking sector has narrowed to 8.04%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - City commercial banks have seen an increase in their overweight ratio, marking the first rise since Q3 2023, while state-owned banks have experienced an expanded underweight ratio [4]. - The total market value of actively managed funds' holdings in the banking sector reached 55.584 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.87% [4]. - The report identifies the top five banks by market value held by actively managed funds as China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Ningbo Bank, with respective holding ratios of 0.84%, 0.43%, 0.38%, 0.38%, and 0.38% [4]. - The report anticipates that retail banks and high-quality regional banks will benefit from macroeconomic policy support, with a continued focus on high dividend strategies [4]. Summary by Sections Active Fund Holdings - The report notes that the total market value of actively managed funds' holdings in the banking sector is 55.584 billion yuan, with a holding ratio of 3.95%, up 1.16 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The allocation ratios for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks have all increased, with city commercial banks showing the largest increase of 0.53 percentage points [4]. Passive Fund Holdings - The total market value of passive funds' holdings in the banking sector is 94.664 billion yuan, with a holding ratio of 8.23%, down 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The allocation ratios for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks have varied, with joint-stock banks seeing an increase of 0.27 percentage points [4]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital inflow into the banking sector totaled 217.573 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, but the holding ratio increased to 9.89%, up 0.8 percentage points [4]. - The top five stocks held by northbound capital are China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Industrial Bank, and Bank of Communications, with respective holding ratios of 2.27%, 0.82%, 0.80%, 0.72%, and 0.51% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the value of dividend asset allocation continues, with increased attractiveness for retail joint-stock banks and high-quality regional banks. It emphasizes that fiscal stimulus is favorable for credit growth [4]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [4].