申万公用环保周报：2024年全社会用电增速6.8% 国内LNG价格持续回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a projected 6.8% growth in national electricity consumption for 2024, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector and urban residents [2][5][7] - International natural gas prices are experiencing fluctuations, while domestic LNG prices are on a downward trend [16][22] - The report recommends several companies across different sectors, including power generation, natural gas, and environmental services, based on their growth potential and market conditions [16][33][49] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is expected to reach 98,521 billion kWh, marking a 6.8% year-on-year increase, with a two-year CAGR of 6.8% [2][5] - The growth rates for different sectors are as follows: primary industry at 6.3%, secondary industry at 5.1%, tertiary industry at 9.9%, and urban residents at 10.6% [7][8] - The tertiary sector and urban residents are contributing nearly half of the total electricity consumption increase, despite having a lower share of total consumption [6][10] Natural Gas Sector - As of January 24, 2024, the Henry Hub spot price is $4.03/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.00%, while domestic LNG prices have decreased to 4,300 RMB/ton, down 3.26% [16][17] - The report notes that cold weather has led to increased heating demand in the U.S., causing a rapid decline in natural gas inventories, which may reverse the oversupply situation seen since 2022 [18][22] - The report suggests that domestic LNG prices are influenced by multiple factors, including demand and logistics, leading to a continuous decline as the Spring Festival approaches [31][33] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, recommended companies include Longjiang Electric, State Power Investment Corporation, and China Nuclear Power, among others, based on their growth potential and market conditions [16][49] - In the natural gas sector, the report recommends companies such as China Gas, Hong Kong and China Gas, and Kunlun Energy, highlighting their improved profitability due to cost reductions and favorable pricing policies [33][49] - The environmental sector recommendations include companies like Hongcheng Environment and Yongxing Co., focusing on stable performance and high dividend yields [33][49]