1月FOMC会议：美联储何时开启下次降息？

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the January 29 FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed is likely to continue observing economic data and the impact of the Trump administration's policies before considering further rate cuts in 2025, with a potential reduction of 50-75 basis points[2][10] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is no urgency to adjust the policy stance in the first quarter, suggesting a wait-and-see approach[7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the FOMC statement, the market initially interpreted the Fed's language as hawkish, leading to a temporary rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index[5][10] - The dollar index peaked at approximately 108.3 but settled at 107.9555, while the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 4.589% and 4.528%[10] - CME data shows that traders expect two rate cuts in 2025, consistent with the Fed's guidance from December 2024[10] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Fed remains satisfied with the progress towards the 2% inflation target and does not plan to adjust this target[8] - Powell emphasized that recent inflation data shows signs of moving towards the 2% goal, and short-term fluctuations should not be over-interpreted[8] - The market is currently in a state of uncertainty regarding the implementation of key policies by the Trump administration, which may affect future Fed rate decisions[10]