January 2025: American Mindset

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment regarding the US economy has worsened, with over half of respondents feeling the economy is in poor shape, a significant increase from the previous fall [7][8] - Despite negative sentiment, economic indicators suggest a projected growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, up from 2.0% in December [7] - There is a notable generational divide in economic perceptions, with Millennials and Gen Z more likely to believe the economy is in a recession compared to older adults [17][11] Summary by Sections Consumer Sentiment - The survey indicates a divided consumer sentiment, with many feeling pessimistic about both the current and future economic conditions [5][6] - A significant portion of consumers (50%) believe the US is currently in a recession, although the perception of a full-blown recession has decreased [13][14] Economic Outlook - Optimism regarding the economic outlook for the next 6 to 12 months has dropped below 50%, with Millennials showing the largest decline in positive outlook [21][25] - The share of Americans expecting their financial situation to improve has decreased, with only 17% anticipating worsening finances in the next month, down from 24% in September [53][54] Personal Finances - Consumer sentiment about personal finances is split, with half reporting their finances as "good" or "excellent" and the other half as "not very good" or "terrible" [29][30] - Gen Z's financial outlook is improving, while Millennials are experiencing a decline in their financial situation [33][37] Spending Behavior - Consumers are increasingly cutting back on discretionary spending, particularly in dining and luxury categories, while spending on fitness and wellness remains resilient [41][49] - There is a trend of consumers trading down on essential purchases, indicating a shift in spending priorities [45][46] Marketing Implications - Marketers are advised to segment messaging to resonate with different generational experiences and to frame economizing as a smart choice rather than a compromise [60][61] - Brands should position their products as essential investments in personal optimization to appeal to consumers' desire for quality amidst budget cuts [62]