Market Outlook - The market tends to stabilize after a rapid decline, with the current downturn exceeding historical averages since the Central Economic Work Conference[11] - Historical data shows that after a weekly decline of over 5%, market turnover typically shrinks, but short-term stabilization is likely[11] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Market sentiment and certain valuation indicators have returned to historical lows, indicating a gradual return of value in the equity market[12] - The GLDI sentiment indicator has dropped below 10%, suggesting a significant potential for market stabilization in the short term[12] - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 and the Wind All A indices minus the 10-year government bond yield has reached over 2 standard deviations, indicating a return of value in the equity market[12] High-Quality Dividend Assets - High-quality and high-dividend assets are expected to offer higher and more stable dividend yields, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, home appliances, and textiles[14] - Current PE valuation levels in A-shares may approach extreme positions, but certain sectors still exhibit high value when measured by dividend yield[14] Risk Factors - Major changes in global geopolitical situations could lead to abrupt shifts in global market risk appetite[14] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not meet expectations, impacting market liquidity[14] - Domestic economic recovery may fall short of expectations, posing risks to market stability[14]
策略研究点评报告:市场调整后的行情展望
Guolian Securities·2025-02-02 10:40