社会服务行业2月投资前瞻：假期客流量再创新高，出境游增速优于国内

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the social services industry. Core Insights - The social services industry is experiencing a significant increase in travel volume during the holiday season, with a total of 1.32 billion trips made from January 28 to February 1, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a 32.1% increase compared to 2019 [8][10]. - Domestic tourism is showing strong growth, particularly in lesser-known destinations, with provinces like Hunan and Guangdong seeing increases of 34.12% and 6.17% respectively [9]. - The report highlights a surge in interest in cultural heritage and niche travel destinations, with searches for "intangible cultural heritage" sites increasing by 87% since January [9]. - The hotel occupancy rate (OCC) has decreased significantly ahead of the holiday, while the average daily rate (ADR) has seen a slight increase [21]. - International travel is recovering, with outbound travel expected to reach an average of 1.85 million people per day during the holiday, a 9.5% increase year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Holiday Travel Data - The total cross-regional travel volume reached 1.32 billion trips, with rail transport at 48.16 million trips (+2.6% YoY), road transport at 1.26 billion trips (+5.9% YoY), and civil aviation at 10.89 million trips (+4.4% YoY) [8][10]. 2. Industry Data - In December 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [12]. - The retail sales excluding automobiles were 40,000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [12]. 3. Industry News - The report notes that the Hainan duty-free market is under pressure, with Sanya performing better than Haikou [21]. - The hotel sector is seeing a significant drop in occupancy rates ahead of the holiday, with OCC at 50.4% and ADR at 211 yuan per room [21]. - The report mentions that Macau's gaming revenue in December was 18.2 billion patacas, a 2% decline year-on-year [43]. 4. Market Trends - The social services industry saw a decline of 5.2% in January, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [52]. - The hotel and restaurant sector experienced a decline of 2.3%, while the tourism and scenic area sector saw a drop of 3.3% [52]. 5. Key Stock Predictions and Valuations - The report includes earnings predictions for key companies, with China Duty Free Group expected to have an EPS of 3.25 yuan in 2023, with a PE ratio of 18.7 [62].