2025年春节白酒渠道反馈：动销放缓 价格企稳，理性决策 主动调整

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting that leading companies have long-term investment value due to their dividend yields [4][7]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Spring Festival is expected to be weaker than in 2024, aligning with cautious market expectations. Sales are under pressure due to macroeconomic factors, although there remains a rigid demand for banquet and gift scenarios [4][7]. - The price system in the industry has stabilized after a downward trend since 2024, with key products in the 300-500 RMB range showing strong support [4][7]. - Inventory levels vary across brands, with some like Moutai and Fenjiu seeing slight increases but remaining healthy, while Wuliangye has reduced inventory under strict control [4][7]. - Many companies are adopting a long-term strategy rather than focusing on short-term growth, which is expected to facilitate industry adjustments [4][7]. - The second quarter of 2025 is critical for confirming the industry's bottom characteristics, contingent on the adherence of leading companies to current pricing strategies [4][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report indicates that the liquor industry's sales during the Spring Festival of 2025 are expected to be lower than in 2024, with a notable decline in overall sales volume and brand differentiation becoming more pronounced [4][7]. - The price system has shown signs of stabilization, particularly for major liquor products, with a strong demand in the 300-500 RMB price range [4][7]. Brand-Specific Feedback - Moutai's sales performance is stable, with prices maintaining between 2200-2300 RMB, while Moutai 1935 has seen significant sales growth due to improved price competitiveness [8]. - Wuliangye has experienced a recovery in dealer confidence, with prices rising from under 900 RMB to around 920-940 RMB, although the sales pace is slower than last year [8]. - Shanxi Fenjiu has shown relatively strong sales performance, with stable pricing and inventory levels around two months [8]. Regional Feedback - In Sichuan, overall liquor consumption during the Spring Festival is reported to be poor, with corporate group purchases and distribution channels performing weakly [11]. - In North China, the liquor sales during the Spring Festival are not as strong as in previous years, with both volume and profit being unsatisfactory [12]. - In Anhui, the overall sales volume is expected to be lower than last year, with a notable increase in the market share of Gujing Gongjiu [14].