地产及物管行业周报：春节假期新房成交同比上涨，大股东深铁入局万科管理层

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5][30]. Core Insights - New home sales saw a year-on-year increase during the Spring Festival holiday, while second-hand home prices have stabilized [5][30]. - The report suggests that the combination of policies since September has been effective in stabilizing the market, with expectations for continued policy support to drive recovery in the real estate sector [5][30]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side adjustments are nearing completion, which may lead to a rebound in quality real estate companies [5][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In the week of January 25 to January 31, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 569,000 square meters, down 79% week-on-week [6][7]. - January's new home sales in 34 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down 20% and third and fourth-tier cities down 46% [7][8]. - During the Spring Festival period, new home sales in 18 cities increased by 27.9% year-on-year [12][14]. Company Dynamics - Vanke expects a net profit loss of approximately 45 billion yuan for the year, a year-on-year decline of 470%, primarily due to decreased project settlement scale and gross margins [3][33]. - The company has undergone significant management changes, with the election of a new chairman from Shenzhen Metro Group [3][33]. - Greentown China anticipates a profit decline of no more than 50% for 2024 compared to 2023 [3][33]. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 1.23%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which declined by 0.41% [5][38]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for major AH real estate companies is projected at 8.9 for 2024 and 8.3 for 2025 [5][30]. Policy and News Tracking - In January 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported sales of 227.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [30][31]. - Local policies in Wuhan and Suzhou are aimed at supporting home purchases through various subsidies [30][31].