Scenarios for North American light vehicle electrification

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The recent US election results are expected to delay the adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in North America due to a less stringent stance on emissions regulations under the Trump administration [1][4][10] - The delayed adoption of BEVs will have cascading effects on the entire automotive value chain, prolonging profitability challenges for electrification-focused players while extending opportunities for Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)-focused legacy players [2][12] - The regulatory landscape, particularly changes in the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and California Air Resources Board (CARB) standards, is a significant factor influencing electrification forecasts [3][4][19] Summary by Sections Regulatory Impact - The incoming Trump administration is expected to soften EPA emissions and fuel economy standards beyond model year 2027, which will prolong ICE production and hinder EV adoption [11][19] - CARB's Advanced Clean Cars II rule mandates that by 2035, all new cars and light trucks sold must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), but OEMs can only meet 20% of their ZEV requirement with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) [5][19] Market Scenarios - The report outlines three scenarios for North American light vehicle xEV shares: upside, base, and downside cases, reflecting different regulatory environments and adoption rates [14][20] - In the base case, the repeal of current EPA emissions standards will reduce the need for BEVs, leading OEMs to rely more on hybrids [19] - The downside case assumes a challenge to CARB's ability to set emissions standards, delaying California's 100% ZEV sales target from 2035 to 2040 [20] OEM and Supplier Strategies - Traditional manufacturers must manage a triple powertrain strategy, integrating ICEs, HEVs, and BEVs, while EV-focused OEMs need to compete with hybrids due to anticipated profitability challenges [21][22] - Suppliers are expected to reevaluate their participation in electrification, which may create opportunities, but many sub-scale suppliers may exit the market due to low volumes and profitability issues [23][24]