全球市场交易模式：黄金分析框架

Group 1: Trading Models and Their Impact on Gold - The research identifies eight trading models that significantly influence gold price fluctuations, particularly during the period from 1989 to 2024[2] - Loose/tight trading reflects gold's financial attributes, with loose trading correlating to price increases and tight trading to decreases[2] - Inflation/cooling trading represents gold's commodity attributes, with inflation driving prices up and cooling leading to declines[2] Group 2: Historical Phases of Gold Pricing - The historical performance of gold can be divided into three phases: 1989-2004 (inflation-driven commodity phase), 2005-2014 (full-attribute pricing phase), and 2015-2024 (commodity attribute decline phase)[3] - In the first phase, inflation trading had a significant impact, with an average daily increase of 0.118% and a cumulative increase of 54.9%[20] - The second phase saw inflation trading average daily increases of 0.415% and cumulative increases of 94.4%, while cooling trading had a lesser impact[25] Group 3: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - From 2015 to 2024, gold's commodity attributes weakened, with inflation and growth logic showing insignificant effects on price fluctuations[29] - The financial attributes of gold became more pronounced, with loose trading leading to an average daily increase of 0.375% and a cumulative increase of 96.6%[28] - Future gold pricing is expected to be influenced by financial attributes, geopolitical uncertainties, and new explanatory variables such as "de-dollarization" trends[38]