美国四季度GDP数据：消费强，投资弱，增长惯性下不急于降息

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The actual GDP growth for Q4 2024 was 2.3%, lower than the market expectation of 2.6%, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% and a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.0% [2][3][4] - Consumer spending showed resilience, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.2% in Q4 2024, while private investment decreased by 5.6% [2][3][4] - The contribution of net exports to GDP was 0.04 percentage points, and inventory reduction pulled GDP down by 0.93 percentage points [2][3][4] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Dynamics - Strong consumer performance indicates that the actual growth inertia of GDP remains intact, with a healthy "wage-consumption" cycle [2][4] - Durable goods consumption exceeded expectations, driven by entertainment goods and vehicles, while service consumption continued to accelerate, particularly in healthcare [4][9] - Investment was the main drag on economic growth in Q4, with negative growth in construction and previously strong equipment investments [4][8] Group 3: Government Spending and Inflation - Government spending continued to provide a stabilizing effect, primarily focused on defense, with local government spending driven by employee salaries [4][10] - The PCE inflation rate increased from 1.5% to 2.3%, while core PCE inflation rose from 2.2% to 2.5%, indicating manageable price growth [2][4][10] - The federal deficit exceeded $710 billion in the first quarter of FY 2025, suggesting that fiscal policy can continue to support steady economic growth [4][10]