中国银河：每日晨报-20250205

Key Insights - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival, various events in China successfully mitigated external market negative impacts, enhancing long-term confidence in China's economy despite the U.S. imposing tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico [3][4][21] - The Chinese consumption and manufacturing sectors have accelerated their supply chain globalization in recent years, allowing capable companies to effectively respond to changes in U.S. tariffs, leading to reduced market sensitivity compared to previous years [3][4] - The central government's focus on expanding domestic demand was emphasized in the December 2024 economic work conference, marking consumption as a crucial pillar for domestic economic stability in 2025 [3][11] Macro Analysis - The 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. is estimated to reduce China's export growth rate by approximately 1.2 percentage points, with a potential decline of 8.2 percentage points in exports to the U.S. based on elasticity estimates [22][23] - The report suggests that the impact of the new tariffs on the Chinese yuan will be less severe than in 2018 due to different economic conditions, including a stronger current account surplus and a more robust export sector [24] Consumption Sector - The report identifies a significant shift in government focus towards boosting consumption, with policies introduced in 2024 aimed at stimulating both goods and service economies [11][28] - The anticipated scale of subsidies for consumer goods in 2025 is projected to reach around 500 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance retail sales growth by approximately 1.7 percentage points [12][31] - The consumption sector is expected to see a turnaround, with opportunities for both high-dividend value investments and growth stocks emerging as consumer purchasing power stabilizes [33] Technology Sector - DeepSeek's technological advancements are noted to significantly lower costs and enhance performance, potentially accelerating the proliferation of AI applications and hardware [34][36] - The report emphasizes the diversification of the AI industry driven by DeepSeek's innovations, which could lead to increased demand for AI-related hardware and applications across various sectors [34][36] Cultural Industry - The cultural sector is experiencing notable progress, with the Spring Festival box office reaching record highs, indicating a growing consumer interest in domestic films and cultural products [10][39] - The report highlights the rise of domestic IPs in the film industry, which is expected to stimulate further development in the IP ecosystem and related industries [40][41]