石油化工行业周报：春节期间原油市场回顾

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has shown a downward trend during the Spring Festival period, influenced by several negative factors including the strong performance of the US dollar and concerns over demand due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [4][5] - The report anticipates that oil prices will maintain a high level with fluctuations, projecting a trend of high in the beginning and low towards the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 31, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $76.76 per barrel, down 2.22% from the previous week, while NYMEX futures fell 2.85% to $72.53 per barrel [4][20] - US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.463 million barrels to 415 million barrels, which is 6% lower than the five-year average [22] - The report suggests that the oil supply-demand balance is widening, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, but OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [4][15] Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products rose to $12.18 per barrel, while the gasoline-WTI spread increased to $8.85 per barrel [4] - The report indicates that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels of product margins [4][15] Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has decreased while polyester filament profitability has increased, with PTA prices rising to 5094.00 CNY per ton [4] - The report notes that the polyester industry is showing signs of improvement, with low inventory levels and potential demand recovery [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high dividend yield stocks such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [15] - It also highlights the potential for performance improvement in offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to sustained capital expenditure [15] - The report suggests focusing on companies in the polyester sector, particularly Tongkun Co., as the industry is expected to recover [15]