天津房地产市场2024年回顾和2025年展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the office market in Tianjin, with a focus on "price for volume" strategies in 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization of rental levels in the future [4][10]. Core Insights - The Tianjin office market is expected to continue its "price for volume" strategy in 2025, with significant rental declines aimed at stimulating demand. Economic policies are anticipated to positively impact the office market, leading to a gradual recovery in rental levels as demand grows and the economic environment improves [4][10]. - The overall net absorption in the Tianjin office market showed a 42% increase compared to 2023, reaching 104,000 square meters, with the secondary market being particularly active [10]. - The average effective rent for premium office spaces in Tianjin decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing a 2.4% decline compared to the previous quarter [10]. Summary by Sections Overall Review - The Tianjin office market's total area remained at 4.11 million square meters, with a total of 152,000 square meters for premium office spaces. The overall vacancy rate increased slightly to 31.2% due to new supply, while the vacancy rate for premium offices was recorded at 35.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [10][7]. Market Outlook - In 2024, the overall effective rent for premium office spaces was 71 yuan per square meter per month, reflecting a significant decline. The report highlights that many premium office buildings have started to reduce rents rapidly in the second half of the year to attract tenants and improve occupancy rates [10][7]. Retail Market Overview - The retail market in Tianjin is supported by entertainment and dining brands, with a notable increase in demand driven by the opening of new complexes and revitalization of old assets. The market is expected to see 865,000 square meters of new projects in the next two years, primarily in suburban areas [12][23]. - The average effective rent for quality retail properties was 282.9 yuan per square meter per month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, indicating a trend of increasing rental discounts to attract high-quality brands [23][16].