建筑行业行业月报：基建投资维持高位，Q4基金持仓占比提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is experiencing an improvement in business activity, with the business activity index rising to 53.2% in December, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month [3][6] - Infrastructure investment growth remains high, with broad infrastructure investment growth at 9.19% for the year, and narrow infrastructure investment growth at 4.4% [3][39] - Real estate sales are showing a narrowing decline, with a 12.9% year-on-year decrease in sales area, but the decline is less than previous months [3][55] - The report highlights three main investment directions: undervalued high-dividend state-owned enterprises in the infrastructure sector, high-growth international engineering companies, and leading firms in the low-altitude economy [3] Summary by Sections 1. Construction Industry Sentiment Improvement - The construction industry's business activity index is at 53.2%, indicating a positive trend [3][6] - New orders in the construction sector increased significantly, with the new order index at 51.4%, up 7.9 percentage points [7] 2. Accelerating Fixed Asset Investment Growth - Fixed asset investment for 2024 was 514,374 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [23] - Infrastructure investment within fixed assets grew by 4.4% year-on-year [23] 3. High Growth in Infrastructure Investment, Continued Decline in Real Estate Sales - Broad infrastructure investment growth is at 9.19%, while narrow infrastructure investment growth is at 4.4% [39] - Real estate development investment totaled 100,280 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year [55] 4. 2024 Annual Performance Forecast: Engineering Consulting and Infrastructure Sectors Under Pressure - Among 44 listed companies in the construction sector, some segments like engineering consulting and specialized engineering are expected to see performance growth, while others are facing declines [62] 5. Q4 Construction Fund Holdings Slightly Increased, State-Owned Enterprises Remain Focus - As of Q4 2024, the fund holdings in the construction sector increased to 160.38 billion yuan, a growth of 13.55% from the previous quarter [3] 6. Recommendations for Infrastructure and Real Estate Industry Chain - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with low valuations and stable dividends, high-growth international engineering firms, and key players in the low-altitude economy [3]