宏观数据：美国政府开启对多国贸易战，短期内或扰动海外市场

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - On February 1, the U.S. government announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, effective February 4[1] - The new policy also eliminated the $800 exemption for low-value goods, impacting online retailers like Temu and Shein[2] - The decision to delay the tariff implementation for Canada and Mexico by one month was made in exchange for cooperation on border and fentanyl issues[1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The current administration's trade war initiation reflects increased policy uncertainty compared to the previous Biden administration[2] - The tariffs on neighboring countries highlight the government's protectionist stance, contrasting with prior administrations' support for free trade[4] - In 2023, the U.S. imported$429.6 billion from Canada and $480.1 billion from Mexico, making them the first and third largest trade partners, respectively[4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market had not fully priced in the potential impact of the tariffs, underestimating the current administration's resolve and execution capability[5] - The tariffs may lead to increased inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the near term[5] - The anticipated inflation could result in heightened volatility in U.S. stock valuations throughout the year[5]