Economic Indicators - In January 2025, CPI is expected to grow by 0.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - PPI is projected to decline by 2.0%, narrowing the drop by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] Monetary Supply - New RMB loans are forecasted at 40,000 billion yuan in January 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9,200 billion yuan[20] - M2 is expected to grow by 7.5% year-on-year by the end of January 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period[24] Market Dynamics - The warm winter has led to sufficient food supply, keeping CPI growth low[7] - Rising oil prices are contributing to a continued narrowing of PPI decline[16] - Localized debt issues and the timing of the Spring Festival are leading to reduced credit demand[22] Currency Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.2 in February 2025, supported by global interest rate cuts and technological advancements in China[26][28]
春节效应，货币供应增速或有上行
北大国民经济研究中心·2025-02-05 09:25