2024年第二季度宏观展望报告（英译中）

Group 1: Economic Outlook - KKR's report anticipates increased market volatility and political complexity in the second half of 2024[1] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.5%, Europe at 0.8%, China at 5.0%, and Japan at 0.6%[8] - Confidence in structural productivity levels in the U.S. remains high due to positive technological advancements[1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Diversification and adaptability to market changes are crucial for capitalizing on investment opportunities[1] - The traditional relationship between stocks and bonds has fundamentally changed, necessitating new portfolio strategies[2] - The importance of non-correlated assets is increasing, with expected lower returns due to rising portfolio volatility[3] Group 3: Key Trends - Significant growth in AI electricity demand and energy consumption in sectors like electric vehicle battery facilities and semiconductor plants[3] - Broad profit growth across industries and regions is expected to provide more balance to the stock market[3] - The anticipated oil price range for 2024 is between $70 and $80 per barrel, with long-term forecasts above futures prices[8]