美国加征关税快评：10%关税加征落地，对出口和汇率影响几何？

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Exports - The 10% tariff increase is expected to reduce China's export growth to the U.S. by approximately 1.2 percentage points[1] - The elasticity of China's export growth to U.S. tariffs is estimated at -0.82, meaning a 1% increase in tariffs results in a 0.82% decrease in export growth[1] - A linear extrapolation suggests that a 10% tariff could lead to an 8.2% decline in export growth to the U.S.[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Support Factors - Despite tariff impacts, China's exports are projected to continue growing due to global economic recovery, with IMF and WTO forecasting global trade growth at 3% for 2025[1] - China's product competitiveness and diversification of export markets are expected to support export momentum[1] - In 2024, China's export share to traditional markets like the EU and the U.S. is expected to decline slightly, while exports to ASEAN are projected to increase by 0.9 percentage points[1] Group 3: Currency and Trade Relations - The impact of the tariff on the RMB is expected to be less severe than in 2018 due to prior market pricing and a different economic environment[1] - Current conditions include a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, contrasting with the rate hike cycle during the previous tariff increase[1] - The Chinese government’s fiscal expansion and strong current account surplus are likely to provide support for the RMB[1] Group 4: Trade Conflict Risks - Canada and Mexico have announced countermeasures, with Canada imposing a 25% tariff on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods[2] - China plans to file a complaint with the WTO and implement countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs[2] - There is a risk of escalating trade fragmentation and further policy tightening from the U.S. despite its own inflation pressures[2]