造纸轻工行业周报：关税落地背景下优质出口个股抗风险力凸显；关注以旧换新及业绩预告优质个股

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, highlighting strong export resilience and recommending quality stocks such as "Craft Home," "Jia Yi Co.," "Yong Yi Co.," "Tian Zhen Co.," "Yi Yi Co.," and "Gong Chuang Turf" [1][5][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of the 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports, suggesting that quality companies with strong risk resilience are well-positioned to navigate these challenges [5][6] - It highlights the upcoming "old-for-new" policy aimed at stimulating demand in various sectors, including home decoration and digital products, which is expected to boost sales [20][21] - The report notes a potential recovery in consumer spending, with recommendations for companies like "Bai Ya Co.," "Deng Kang Oral," "Gong Niu Group," "Cheng Guang Co.," and "Bu Lu Ke" [5][6] Summary by Sections Export Sector - The U.S. has announced a 10% tariff on imports from China, prompting a focus on companies with strong overseas production capabilities to mitigate risks [5][6] - Companies like "Craft Home," "Jia Yi Co.," "Yong Yi Co.," "Tian Zhen Co.," and "Yi Yi Co." are highlighted for their ability to adapt to these changes [6][8] Performance Forecasts - "Craft Home" is expected to achieve a net profit of 570-650 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.9%-59.6% [12] - "Tian Zhen Co." anticipates a revenue of 884-924 million yuan in 2024, with a significant turnaround expected in Q4 [12][14] - "Jia Yi Co." forecasts a net profit of 725-745 million yuan, with strong growth driven by new customer acquisitions and overseas expansion [15][19] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost demand in the home improvement sector, with specific subsidies outlined for various product categories [20][21] - The report indicates that the home improvement industry is likely to benefit from government support, leading to improved demand and sales growth [21][25] Consumer Trends - The report notes a marginal recovery in consumer spending, with expectations for increased market share for quality companies [5][6] - The home improvement sector is projected to see a boost from the "old-for-new" policy, with significant sales expected in 2025 [20][21]