IPO申购指南：古茗控股

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for Gu Ming Holdings (1364.HK) [6] Core Insights - Gu Ming Holdings is a leading and rapidly growing Chinese beverage company, primarily operating through a franchise model, with a focus on selling fruit tea, milk tea, coffee, and other beverages. Revenue is mainly derived from sales to franchisees, with over 95% of income coming from franchise stores from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company has been steadily expanding its store network, with the number of stores increasing from 6,669 in 2022 to 9,001 in 2023, and projected to reach 9,778 in the first three quarters of 2024, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 35.0%, and 8.6% respectively. Same-store GMV grew by 2.8% and 9.4% in 2022 and 2023, but saw a decline of 0.7% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - According to Zhi Shi Consulting, Gu Ming is the largest mass beverage brand in China by GMV and store count, holding approximately 18% market share in the ready-to-drink tea segment. The overall market for ready-to-drink beverages in China has been growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023, reaching CNY 517.5 billion in 2023, and is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 16.7% to CNY 1,163.4 billion by 2028 [3] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues of CNY 4.38 billion, CNY 5.56 billion, CNY 7.68 billion, and CNY 6.44 billion for the first three quarters of 2021 to 2024, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 20.6% from 2021 to 2023. Net profit has also significantly increased, with figures of CNY 0.2 billion, CNY 3.7 billion, CNY 11.0 billion, and CNY 11.2 billion for the same period, showing a CAGR of 280.3% [4] - The estimated market capitalization of Gu Ming Holdings at the median offer price is approximately CNY 21.72 billion, with a static PE ratio of 18.4, which is higher than the industry median of 16.8 [6] Company Valuation Analysis - The report includes a comparison of valuations with other companies in the industry, indicating that Gu Ming Holdings has an estimated market capitalization of CNY 21.72 billion and a PE ratio of 18.4, compared to competitors like Cha Bai Dao (16.8) and Luckin Coffee (23.2) [7]